And They’re Off! The General Election Sweepstakes

Grand National

The 2015 General Election is almost too close to call, but that doesn’t stop any of us trying.

We asked a few friends of DTW whose opinions we trust and respect to give us their views on who will be running the show come 8 May. Interesting reading!

David Cameron will be happy with the predictions as most respondents see him remaining as Prime Minister but half say it might not be for too long. The most popular scenario here is him remaining as PM and attempting to govern as a minority administration while one foresees a loose coalition between the Conservative party and the SNP – stranger things have happened.

The performance of UKIP could be critical here in the number of seats they could deliver to any potential coalition and all respondents saw them increasing their current tally of two, but whether it is one more or three more to a total of five MPs will be interesting to see.

Respondents were split on the turnout of the election, with half expecting an increase on 2010 and half expecting that to fall.

A range of key issues were suggested as to what would have the main influence in the election, but the most popular was the economy.

Steph Edusei – Chief Executive, A New View Ltd 

  1. Which party or parties will form the next government? Labour minority government – although I do think this will be a very close call
  2. Who will be Prime Minister after the election?  Ed Miliband
  3. How many parliamentary seats will UKIP have on 8 May? Five
  4. What will the turnout be? 64.3% (I think people are fed up of hearing about it all. Turnout in N. Ireland, Scotland and Wales will probably boost lackluster performance in England).
  5. What factors do you think will play a key role in the election? The NHS, the economy, immigration, social care (quality and cost particularly for older people)
Steph Edusei

Hugh O’Connor – General Manager, Merseylink 

  1.  Which party or parties will form the next government? Conservative & the SNP with some sort of loose alliance – although Labour & Conservative will be very close. Nicola Sturgeon could be far more influential as a Deputy PM than Nick Clegg.
  2. Who will be Prime Minister after the election? David Cameron (if he retains his seat) but Boris is waiting in the wings…
  3. How many parliamentary seats will UKIP have on 8 May? I suspect around five
  4. What will the turnout be? 61.5%
  5. What factors do you think will play a key role in the election? Overall performance on camera and quality of sound bites, in particular who comes across as the most genuine, although there is lots of time and room for any one of them to blot their copybook in the run-in
Hugh O'Connor

Ross Smith – Director of Policy, North East Chamber of Commerce 

  1. Which party or parties will form the next government? The Conservatives. They may lose some seats in England, but if the polls are anywhere near accurate in Scotland they could still remain the largest party. I’m not sure if they will find coalition partners though so they may attempt a minority government with the possibility of a quick European referendum
  2. Who will be Prime Minister after the election? David Cameron – although for how long is another matter
  3. How many parliamentary seats will UKIP have on 8 May? Three
  4. What will the turnout be? 66%
  5. What factors do you think will play a key role in the election? I think deep down, a large proportion of the electorate have a gut instinct for which of the two main parties they would prefer to lead a government, and I don’t think too many people have changed their minds on that since 2010
Ross Smith

Chris Taylor, Managing Director, DTW 

  1. Which party or parties will form the next government? I think the Conservatives will be the largest party but won’t have enough seats for an overall majority, so will try to form a minority administration
  2. Who will be Prime Minister after the election? David Cameron
  3. How many parliamentary seats will UKIP have on 8 May? Four
  4. What will the turnout be? 67%
  5. What factors do you think will play a key role in the election? Party leaders and trust in economic competence
Chris Taylor
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